Appendix H: The workplace of the future

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Kamal Dib
Labour Standards and Workplace Equity
Labour Program, Human Resources Development Canada

What kinds of workers are available for the new economy? What are the challenges facing human resources development? How will Canada respond to globalization? Two seminars were held at Labour Operations Directorate, Labour Program, in July and August 2000, at National Headquarters, entitled "Globalization and the Workplace." They were hosted separately by Gerry Blanchard, Director General, and Neil Gavigan, Director, Labour Standards and Workplace Equity, moderated by Rich Watson, Manager, Data Group, and presented by Kamal Dib, a senior officer in the Data Group. This article summarizes the main issues discussed at the two seminars.

The Disappearance of Specialization in the Workplace

Globalization is the convergence of world conomies, technologies and cultures into a single marketplace. It has already happened, during the last century, and now we are looking beyond globalization to standardization of labour markets, wages, production processes, trade relations, technology flows, and so on. The information society, like globalization, is also a creation of the last century.

Workers with few skills are leaving factories, to be replaced by multi-skilled workers, robotics and technology. The "routinization" of tasks is giving way to multi-tasked workers who use a computer to do their assigned duties, and perform work previously done by several different people. Jobs that involve repetitive tasks, such as word processing, reception and assembly line work, are increasingly disappearing. The information revolution has destroyed specialization.

Thanks to technology, there is no downtime in organizations. Managers no longer wait for a letter to be typed by a secretary, and workers no longer stand by at the assembly line for three hours because there is nothing coming their way. In a multi-tasked environment, there is always plenty to do. Tasks per worker have multiplied and salary costs have mounted.

In the 20th century, neurosis - due to hierarchy and tight supervision - was the main health problem. In the 21st century, depression will be the main health concern, as workers become increasingly responsible and accountable for their own work.

Contrary to the thinking of classical economists - who say that specialization is the source of prosperity and comparative advantage - the world is moving towards a convergence of professions and the absence of specialization.

Today what everyone is doing is coming closer to what everyone else is doing. Everyone is developing a mix of skills and becoming equal in productivity. A bank teller, supposedly to be replaced by the ATM, now sells securities and investment products, reviews credit, exchanges foreign funds, runs computer searches and queries, and takes deposits and withdrawals. No matter how unique an occupation is, it still shares a myriad of skills with many other occupations.

"We may be tempted to believe that the global situation exerts only a secondary influence on our daily work, and then only slowly. We may also think that it is related to the future. But we have already absorbed globalizing influences in many aspects of our daily activities and the files that we work on. We already live in this world that we always thought of as the future." (Seminar Participant)

The Disappearance of the Economics Profession

Economists are hired into the public sector, and less into the private sector in Canada. They do impact analysis of programs and legislation, and of revenues and expenditures. Governments and politicians rely more these days on economic analysis for sound decisions.

Yet universities are encountering difficulties in recruiting high school students into undergraduate economics programs. Students head into multidisciplinary programs in administration and information technology and certain programs in science and engineering.

Many elements from economics are now part of MBA training, and MBA/MPA graduates today have similar skills to economists in certain areas, such as project management, strategic planning and policy.

In 1990, there were 4,202 economics graduates from Canadian universities. By 1996, this number had dropped to 3,179, a loss of 24.5 per cent.

The Knowledge Economy

Modern economies are now measured by the contribution of know-how to the gross domestic product. More and more, economic growth is being driven by innovation.

Those with a better education are more likely to find jobs. In the past few years in Canada, 2.25 million jobs went to persons with university or other postsecondary education and 139,000 jobs went to those with secondary education. Almost a million individuals with primary or no education lost their jobs in the same period. Unemployment among persons with higher levels of education is lower than unemployment among those with little or no postsecondary education.

The Shortage of Human Capital

Productivity has increased drastically in the past few years, but knowledge-based workers are becoming scarce. Globalization requires the domestic economy to be based on know-how and high technology, but there are not enough graduates to meet rising demand in the labour market for certain skills.

The needs of private sector industries for growthoriented investment in human resources should not blind long-term planners to the need to pursue new employees with a balanced education. Graduates in social sciences and administration experienced the fastest growth in employment in Canada in the period 1991-1996. However, more students have moved to vocational training schools and colleges in recent years.

"I am thinking here of a world of new technologies, converging international markets and trading arrangements, and the impact on the types of occupations in the Canadian labour market, and on the industrial consolidation that we have witnessed in the past 10 years. For instance, the open-sky concept led to a decline in the number of national air carriers in Canada from seven to one. Similar moves have occurred in banking, telecommunications and other economic sectors. Statistics Canada is expanding its listings of occupations and industries in response to this new economy."(Seminar Participant)

Canadian universities granted 128,000 bachelor degrees in 1996, 25,000 more than in 1987, a gain of 24.2 per cent.

There was a strong movement of students towards some disciplines and away from others. General degrees in Science rose from 899 in 1990 to 1,392 in 1996. Physical Education dropped from 2,299 in 1990 to 1,974 in 1996, but Human Kinetics, a related field, rose from 358 to 956 in the same period. Business Administration is a classic example of a multi-skill field of study. It was a big attraction, rising from 13,533 to 14,388 graduates. The more specialized field of Health Administration dropped from 320 to 28. Civil Engineering increased from 949 to 1,609 and Other Engineering increased from 755 to 1,230.

Globalization and the Linguistic Profile of Canadians

In a global market, countries with knowledge of more languages fare better. Aside from the two official languages, Canadians have a stock of heritage languages that could be exploited in the new economy.

The linguistic profile of Canadians whose first language is neither English nor French is: Chinese, 21 per cent; Italian, 18 per cent; German, 16 per cent; Spanish, 12 per cent; Portuguese, 6.0 per cent; Arabic, 5.0 per cent; Polish, 6.0 per cent; other, 16 per cent.

The linguistic profile of Canadians with a first language other than English or French differs among provinces. In Quebec, the top two other languages are: Italian, 24 per cent and Spanish, 24 per cent. In Ontario: Italian, 20 per cent and German, 12 per cent. In British Columbia: Chinese, 35 per cent and other Asian, 14 per cent. In Saskatchewan: Aboriginal languages, 28 per cent and Ukrainian, 23 per cent.

To compare Canada's linguistic profile to its international trading partners, Japan accounts for 14 per cent of Canada's international trade; Germany, 7.0 per cent; France, 5.0 per cent; Britain, 4.4 per cent; China, 3.2 per cent; Italy, 4.0 per cent and Spain, 2.0 per cent.

These patterns are dictated more by the importance of these trading nations than by the stock of heritage languages in Canada. For instance, Japanese figures less prominently in Canada's linguistic stock than other languages, but trade with Japan is very important.

Human Capital and Labour Migration

Immigration is a positive factor in the Canadian economy. It contributes skills and replenishes the declining population. Canada received 150,000 immigrants in 1972; the number had risen to 225,000 by 1996.

The achievements of immigrants in Canada vary from period to period. In the 1950s and 1960s, immigrants achieved good salaries and relatively easy integration. This has become a longer and more difficult process since the 1970s. It took immigrants five to six years to achieve good salaries in the 1950s and 1960s, but the length of time has increased to 13 to 15 years in the past three decades.

Economic migrants, refugees and persons reuniting with their family represent a growing portion of total immigration. The changing patterns of immigrant source countries, away from Europe and toward Asia, Africa and Latin America, may lead to discrimination in the labour market, especially against visible minorities; and may account for the changing structures of the labour market, where many immigrants suffer higher unemployment rates and lower salaries compared to earlier immigrants.

Brain Drain - Some analysts say that the brain drain is a serious problem, especially the exodus of Canadian talent in specific sectors to the United States. The search for talented human resources is currently the greatest challenge facing major global corporations. It is important to monitor the migration patterns of highly skilled knowledge workers in order to design programs to benefit the Canadian economy.

The Impact of Aging

The Canadian labour force is experiencing a reduction in the number of years of active participation per worker.

In 1921, the average person entered the labour force at age 17.5 years, retired at age 62.7, and died at age 67.7. This person spent 45.2 years in active participation in the labour force, and 4.9 years in retirement.

The average age of a person entering the labour market in 1986 was 20 years. That person will retire at age 65.5 and die at age 73.8, thus spending 39.4 years in active labour force participation and 13.5 years in retirement.

The additional years of life expectancy have added to the cost of old age and health care benefits and pensions. The Quebec population is aging more rapidly than the rest of Canada.

However, there were more Canadians, in percentage terms, employed in the second half of the 20th century than in the first half, as women joined the workforce in big numbers starting in the early 60s. Also, workers in the second half of the 20th century had more tools and technology and better labour and safety standards. In the first half of the century, there was more exposure to workplace hazards (owing to greater employment in workplaces such as railroads and mines), as well as more accidents and disease).

Women's participation will continue to increase in all occupations, considering health, education and life expectancy factors. In certain occupations women are the majority, accounting for up to 80 per cent of persons in some jobs. But women constitute a small minority, not more than 20 per cent, in other occupations, especially in the trades.

Retired persons in Canada rely more on government transfers now than they did in the past. In 1967, 62 per cent of revenues to aged persons came from government transfer payments. In 1997, the figure was 68 per cent. Meanwhile, the percentage of personal contributions to private saving plans has remained virtually unchanged since 1972. A worker still contributes approximately the same share of income to these savings instruments today as a worker did in 1972. The cost to government of health care as a proportion of social services is expected to increase from 13.5 per cent in 1994 to 17.2 per cent in 2031, and the cost of pensions is expected to rise from 5.2 per cent to 11.6 per cent. This situation could become more acute, as personal incomes may deteriorate with aging and dependency on social assistance.

"These changes will shape the ways we view labour relations, wage structures, education, and the role of government, the unions and employers. They will also influence the four employment equity designated groups. Think of women in the workplace in a multidisciplinary environment; think of visible minorities in Canada in the context of a global workplace where relevant skills are becoming scarce; think of persons with disabilities and the aging population in Canada and the demand on health and social services. Think of Canada's Aboriginal people and the impact of globalization on the local culture and on Canadian society in general." (Seminar Participant)