Common menu bar
Breadcrumb
ARCHIVED - Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015)
Archived Content
Information identified as archived on the Web is for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It has not been altered or updated after the date of archiving. Web pages that are archived on the Web are not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards. As per the Communications Policy of the Government of Canada, please contact us to request an alternate format.
| Previous | Contents | Next |
Introduction to the 10-year Outlook
Each year, the Strategic Policy Research Directorate (SPRD) of Human Resources and Social Development Canada (HRSDC) produces a detailed 10-year labour market forecast at the national level. HRSDC uses forecasting models to identify likely trends over the medium term in the level, composition and sources of labour demand and labour supply, and in the industrial and occupational distribution of employment. A key objective is to identify occupations where the current and projected states of supply and demand suggest that imbalances could develop or persist over time.
The information derived from such projections helps in addressing some of the important policy issues facing HRSDC, including population aging, the expected slowdown in labour force growth and the future skill requirements of the economy. The information about future trends in the labour market can also be useful for workers, students and immigrants in their employment and education decisions. As well, the same information can be of value to employers in developing their human resources strategies. Of high interest to many is whether the broad trends in labour demand and supply that have been observed in recent years will continue in the future or whether significant changes can be expected.
More specifically, the report tries to answer the following questions:
- How many jobs are expected to be created over the next decade?
- In which industries and occupations will the new jobs emerge?
- What will be the impact of retirements on job openings?
- What kind of education is required to fill the new positions?
- Will the new supply be sufficient to meet this new demand?
- What occupations will face significant labour market pressures?
The report also looks at the performance of Canada's labour market over the past 15 years in order to compare the outlook with recent experience. The macroeconomic forecast that underlies the labour market outlook includes actual economic data up to 2005.
The report fills an important gap, as no other publication currently provides a comprehensive picture of the Canadian labour market. Many public and private organizations in Canada produce reviews of economic conditions and develop short- and medium-term forecasts. However, very few of them focus their reviews and forecasts on the labour market, and none undertake a detailed outlook by industry, skill level and occupation.
These projections are among the most comprehensive in the world because they forecast prospective growth in both demand and supply by occupation. After all, imbalances occur not just because there is strong job growth in an occupation but because that job growth exceeds the likely growth in supply. A comprehensive forecast of demand takes into account not just the locus of economic growth and the types of jobs that will be created but also the age structure of the workforce and retirement trends in order to see how many jobs will open up because existing workers will retire.
Although no generalized shortage is anticipated in the sense of demand pressures being so strong and so widespread that inflationary pressures will start to develop, that does not mean that in some occupations, there are not any jobs without people or any people without jobs. There is simply too much flux in the economy to think that supply and demand will be in balance in every occupation. Adjustments, such as changes in relative earnings, can even out imbalances over time by influencing changes in both labour demand and labour supply, but they are slow to take place. Accordingly, our projections provide quantitative guidance about potential future pressures and imbalances at a detailed occupational level over the medium term; they do not take into consideration the mechanisms that may alleviate the gaps between demand and supply, such as changes in wages and labour market information.
It is important to note that the purpose of this outlook is not to predict employment levels with as small a margin of error as possible. All forecasts are conditional upon a set of demographic, macroeconomic, industrial and labour market assumptions, at least some of which could turn out to be erroneous. At the same time, however, the information content of the broad trends on which the assumptions are based should be of value. Updating the forecast on an annual basis also makes it possible to integrate recent developments that are pertinent to occupational projections.
Finally, this detailed 10-year outlook is presented for the national level only. At this point, only forecasts of demand by province are produced as provincial supply data are not reliable enough at the level of detail needed to carry out comprehensive projections of labour market imbalances by province.
| Previous | Contents | Next |