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ARCHIVED - Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015)
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Historical Overview/Current Situation
Historical Overview of the Canadian Labour Market
The Canadian labour market is more diverse with more women, older workers and immigrants...
The composition of the Canadian labour market has changed significantly in recent decades, with the number of women, older workers and immigrants being far greater than in the past. This transformation reflects changes in various demographic factors — births and deaths ("natural" increase), immigration and emigration (or net migration). Between 1987 and 2005, as a result of declining fertility rates, population aging (increased number of deaths) and rising immigration levels, the contribution of natural increase to total population growth fell from 66% in 1987 to 34% in 2005. Accordingly, in 2005, net migration accounted for 66% of the increase in total population.
There has been a shift in the age profile of Canada's population. In the mid-1960s, near the end of the baby boom, the population distribution by age was pyramid-shaped. In 1987, the baby boomers (then between ages 21 and 40) accounted for 35% of the total population. In 2005, the baby boomers (now between ages 39 and 58) still represented a significant share of the population, but the base of the age pyramid continued to narrow, a clear indication that the fertility rate had fallen below the replacement level. Given longer life expectancies, the share of older people in the population has increased quickly, resulting in the median age of the population rising from 31.8 years in 1987 to 38.5 years in 2005.
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Population aging has also had a significant impact on the labour force profile, with the median age rising from 33.4 years in 1987 to 39.3 years in 2005. The percentage of older workers (55 years and older) in the labour force rose — from 10% to 14% between 1987 and 2005 — while that of young people (aged 15 to 24) dropped from 22% to 16%. Participation rates of older workers increased from 26.9% in 1987 to 31.5% in 2005, contrasting with the decline for youth workers (participation rate of 65.9% in 2005). As for the "core" group (people aged 25 to 54), the participation rate rose from 82.6% to 86.3%, primarily reflecting the increased participation of women in the labour market.
The share of women in the labour force has risen over the past 17 years, from 43% in 1987 to 47% in 2005. The participation rate of women reached 61.8% in 2005, from 56.5% in 1987, while the male participation rate fell from 76.8% in 1987 to 72.8% in 2005. Overall, the aggregate participation rate was close to its record level in 2005.
...and has been quite healthy over the past few years
In 2005, employment grew at an annual rate of 1.4%, the lowest increase since the economic slowdown of 2001. This weaker growth may be explained in part by the rapid rise in the Canadian dollar, higher energy prices and increased international competition, all of which have taken a toll on manufacturing employment. Nonetheless, last year's performance was relatively strong by historical standards, with employment growth almost matching the 1987-2005 average of 1.5%.1 Since the economic downturn of the early 1990s, a period when monetary policy was used deliberately to slow down the economy in an attempt to lower inflation, employment growth has varied within a band of 1% to 2.5% annually.
With healthy economic and job growth in 2005, the unemployment rate moved down to match the 6.8% low set in 2000. Demographics contributed to this decline: older workers are less likely to be unemployed, and the Canadian workforce is getting older. The unemployment rate has been trending down since 1993, when it reached 11.4%.
Other indicators also show that the Canadian labour market is performing well. In 2005, the participation rate was near its peak at 67.2% and the employment rate reached a record-high level at 62.7%.
For other economic and labour market indicators, click here
Employment Growth by Industry
The share of employment in service-producing industries continued on an upward trend...
Since 1987, the total number of jobs in Canada increased at an average annual rate of 1.5%. Employment in the service-producing sector grew at a slightly above-average rate of 1.9%, while the rate in goods-producing industries was well below the average at 0.5%. This is not an unusual situation: the share of the service-producing sector in total employment has been on the rise for several decades, which in part reflects the faster increase in output per worker in the goods-producing sector. Moreover, the service-producing sector is far less sensitive to the effects of economic downturns.
In the service-producing industries, employment increased steadily from 1987 to 2005. Employment growth was strongest in business services, with the management, administration and other support services and the professional, scientific and technical services sectors reporting average annual rates of 5.0% and 4.3%, respectively. These industries benefited from growth in information technologies (computers, etc.), increased outsourcing by firms and changes spurred by the shift towards a knowledge-based economy. Employment in the information, culture and recreation sector (which includes wireless and satellite telecommunication services, broadcasting, Internet and cable) also reported solid growth during that period (2.0%). These services, which were just starting up in the mid-1990s, swept the market with incredible speed. Since 2002, however, a number of services in this group have begun to mature, while others were hit hard when the technology bubble burst. As a result, employment slowed considerably in 2002 and 2003 and has picked up only slightly since.
Finally, employment growth in the health care and social assistance industry — at an average annual rate of 2.3% — was also considerably above the average for the service sector as a whole between 1987 and 2005. The industry has benefited from significant government re-investment in health services over the last few years, while employment in the social assistance component benefited from new subsidized daycare programs in certain parts of the country. In contrast, employment in public administration increased only slightly, at an average of 0.5% per year.
...while employment in goods-producing industries grew more slowly, except in oil and gas and construction
The majority of goods-producing industries have experienced weak employment growth since 1987. These industries, which tend to be cyclical, were hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. In particular, over 350,000 jobs were lost in manufacturing between 1989 and 1993. However, employment growth was strong during the second half of the 1990s, reflecting a stronger domestic economy and a surge in exports to the United States. Weakness reappeared in manufacturing in 2001 as a result of the U.S. economic slowdown, the impact of a stronger Canadian dollar on exports, greater international competition (especially from China) and various trade disputes.
Agriculture bore the brunt of job losses among goods-producing industries, with employment decreasing at an average of 1.7% annually since 1987. A number of factors accounted for this decline, including the economic slowdown of early 90's, the increasingly important role of bigger, more industrialized farms, severe droughts in the early part of this decade and the beef embargo imposed by the United States.
Construction, under the impetus of the residential construction boom since 2001 and strong growth in non-residential construction in the energy sector during the second half of the 1990s, was the only goods-producing industry to record employment growth (1.9%) higher than the economy-wide average since 1987. The oil and gas extraction industry has also recorded significant growth since 1987. Growth has been particularly strong in the past few years, with soaring oil prices leading to the exploitation of new sources of oil and gas supply. Note, however, that the oil and gas extraction industry accounts for less than 0.5% of total employment.2
For detailed data on employment by industry, click here
Employment Growth by Occupation
High-skilled occupations have recorded the fastest employment growth since 1987...
In 2005, more than 8.7 million non-student3 workers were employed in highly skilled occupations and 5.8 million in low-skilled jobs. The distinction between high- and low-skilled occupations is based on the 2001 National Occupational Classification (NOC). The NOC classifies occupations according to the education level or training usually required to work in a given occupation. (To view the 2001 National Occupational Classification Matrix, click here.) High-skilled occupations include occupations usually requiring university education (skill level A), college education or apprenticeship training (level B) and management occupations, while low-skilled occupations usually require secondary school or occupation-specific training (level C) or only on-the-job training (level D).
The Canadian economy has undergone structural changes generated by rapid technological advancement and expanding trade liberalization. These two factors have intensified worker specialization in highly skilled tasks. Since 1987, highly skilled occupations have grown at an annual average rate of 1.7%, compared to the economy-wide average of 1.4%. Six out of 10 jobs created during that period were in highly skilled occupations.
Among high-skilled occupations, two sub-categories — occupations usually requiring a university education (3.1%) and management occupations (1.7%) — have recorded particularly strong employment growth since 1987. This is reflected in the employment share of occupations usually requiring a university education, which climbed from 13.1% in 1987 to 17.3% in 2005. More specifically, the major contributors to growth in highly skilled jobs have been computer and information systems occupations, engineers, human resource management professionals, policy and program officers, researchers and consultants, and psychologists. Occupations requiring a college education or apprenticeship training recorded the lowest employment growth (1.1%) among high-skilled occupations.
Non-student employment in low-skilled occupations has increased at a slower than average pace (1.1%) since 1987. These occupations are generally more vulnerable to economic slowdowns because they tend to be concentrated in cyclical industries such as trade, manufacturing and transportation. During the recession of the early 1990s, for example, over 330,000 low-skilled jobs were lost, whereas employment in high-skill occupations increased by more than 120,000. The manufacturing industry (2.2 million workers in 2005) was particularly hard hit, accounting for 60% of the total job losses among low-skilled occupations and taking nearly five years to recover.
| Non-student employment (000s) | Growth (AAGR1) | Change (000s) | Share of change | ||
| 1987 | 2005 | 1988-2005 | |||
| Total | 11,242.9 | 14,566.8 | 1.4% | 3,323.9 | 100.0% |
| Skill level2 | |||||
| Management | 1,009.4 | 1,376.7 | 1.7% | 367.3 | 11.1% |
| Occupations usually requiring: | |||||
| - university education | 1,467.5 | 2,525.8 | 3.1% | 1,058.3 | 31.8% |
| - college education or apprenticeship training | 4,007.4 | 4,843.2 | 1.1% | 835.8 | 25.1% |
| - high school diploma | 3,557.3 | 4,353.3 | 1.1% | 796.0 | 23.9% |
| - only on-the-job training | 1,200.9 | 1,467.5 | 1.1% | 266.6 | 8.0% |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 1AAGR: average annual growth rate. 2Skill levels are based on the 2001 NOC Matrix, in which occupations are grouped according to the education level and training normally required. |
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...but recent years have been favourable for all occupations, whether high- or low-skilled
More recently, after several years of under-investment and sluggish employment growth, the outlook for health sector occupations has greatly improved as a result of greater demand for health care and improved government fiscal situations. Thus most health occupations (roughly one million jobs were directly tied to health care in 2005), regardless of the required skill level, have reported average annual growth of at least 3% since 2000. In fact, only physicians, dentists and veterinarians have not attained this level of growth and it was the result of a shortage of skilled labour to meet demand.
As indicated in the previous section, the construction sector, with one million jobs in 2005, has experienced strong growth for nearly five years, which has benefited all directly related occupations. The housing boom also had a major impact on employment in furniture manufacturing and sales, sales of building materials, landscaping services, real estate and banking services (mortgage market). In particular, robustness in the housing industry has enabled some low-skilled occupations — primarily trades helpers, construction labourers, and landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers — to outperform the job market as a whole.
Similarly, oil and gas extraction, exploration and drilling occupations have greatly benefited from major investments made over the past few years under the impetus of the sharp increases in demand and in oil prices.
In contrast, the strong Canadian dollar, international competition (especially from countries with low labour costs), the slow recovery of the electronics and aeronautics industries, and trade disputes with the United States have had a severe impact on manufacturing employment in the past few years, in particular for machine operators in clothing, textiles, pulp and paper, and wood products, and for electronics assemblers/fabricators. In addition to negatively impacting the electronics and computer manufacturing industry, the burst of the technology bubble in the early part of the present decade considerably slowed employment gains in certain high-skilled occupations — IT specialists, computer technicians and some engineers, in particular — which had been important drivers of growth over the 1990s.
For employment information by occupation (three-digit NOC), click here
Labour Force by Educational Level
The educational attainment of Canada's labour force has risen considerably over the past few decades
The Canadian labour market has steadily become more knowledge-intensive, with the fastest growth occurring in jobs that require a higher level of postsecondary education. The labour force has responded to this demand for skills by enhancing its educational outcomes.
Indeed, since 19904 the labour force with postsecondary education has increased rapidly in Canada. The number of individuals with a university degree has risen by 4.4% a year on average over the past 15 years — substantially faster than the overall Canadian labour force (1.3%). In 2005, they accounted for 21.8% of the labour force, up from 13.8% in 1990. The number of individuals with a college education5 increased at an average annual rate of 3.2%. Their share of the labour force also grew, from 25.8% in 1990 to 34.1% in 2005.
In contrast, the number of individuals with high school education6 has grown by only 0.7% a year on average over the past 15 years, while the number of those with less than high school has actually declined, at an annual average rate of 3.0%.
| Levels (000s) | Distribution | Change (AAGR1) 1991-2005 |
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| 1990 | 2005 | 1990 | 2005 | ||
| Total | 14,224.6 | 17,342.6 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 1.3% |
| Educational level | |||||
| University | 1,968.6 | 3,780.5 | 13.8% | 21.8% | 4.4% |
| College | 3,681.5 | 5,906.6 | 25.8% | 34.1% | 3.2% |
| High school | 4,608.3 | 5,131.6 | 32.4% | 29.6% | 0.7% |
| Less than high school | 3,986.2 | 2,523.9 | 28.0% | 14.6% | -3.0% |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. 1 AAGR: average annual growth rate. |
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In 2005, 55.9% of the labour force had postsecondary education — up from less than 40% in 1990. Two factors can explain this strong surge:
- Young people are still getting more education. In 2005, about two thirds (65.5%) of the labour force aged 25-29 had acquired postsecondary education.
- People leaving the labour market tend to have less education than those entering. In 2005, about 55% of the labour force aged 55-64 had postsecondary education.
Current Labour Market Imbalances by Broad Skill Level
There is currently limited evidence of imbalances among broad skill levels...
Imbalances among broad skill levels refer to the discrepancy between the level of skills usually required by employers (demand) and the availability of qualified labour (supply).7Any significant skill level imbalances should generally be revealed by noticeable movements in real wages and/or unemployment rates over time. For example, strong demand by employers in occupations usually requiring university education, coupled with difficulties in finding qualified labour supply to meet this demand, will generally lead to real wage increases and a declining unemployment rate for those occupations. However, to uncover a true skill level imbalance one must go a step further and look at relative rather than absolute real wages and unemployment rates. If real wages are rising and the unemployment rate is falling for all skill levels at the same rate, this may only reflect the general strength of the economy and is not necessarily an indication of specific skill level imbalances.
The following charts show the evolution of real wages and unemployment rates for each skill level (relative to the others) since 1987 and 1997, respectively.8
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From the perspective of broad skill levels, relative real wages have been fairly stable since 1997 (except in management occupations), suggesting that the labour market has not experienced significant imbalances between demand and supply. This is also demonstrated by unemployment rates, which have remained virtually flat in relative terms since 1987. Consequently, it appears that the strong rise in demand within high-skilled occupations has been adequately met by a growing supply of qualified workers.
...however, this does not preclude the possibility of some labour supply over-qualification
An overall balance between broad skill levels suggests that from the point of view of employers, there was enough qualified labour to fill the required demand. For example, this would mean that employers with openings in occupations usually requiring college education were able to find an appropriate number of qualified employees, even employees with higher qualifications (i.e. university education), ready to take up these openings. From the point of view of employees, however, this indicator does not reveal whether there were enough openings at their educational level. For example, individuals with university education may have taken up lower-skilled occupations, indicating a potential oversupply for this educational level. To analyse this issue, one must look at the evolution of unemployment rates and real wages by educational level (relative to the others).
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As shown in the above charts, two educational levels — i.e. university and less than high school — have experienced relative increases in their unemployment rates and declines in their wages. Of concern is the relative unemployment rate of university graduates, which rose considerably over the 2001-03 period. This development was accompanied by falling relative wages.
There are several reasons that may explain this weaker labour market performance of university graduates. Some occupations usually hiring university graduates, such as computer and information systems professionals and business service professionals, have faced tough labour market conditions as a result of the high-tech and stock market collapses of 2001-03. The situation seems to be improving in these occupations, leading to a decline in the relative unemployment rate of university graduates since 2003. However, the rate remains considerably higher than in the early 1990s.
Another reason relates to the fact that an increasing proportion of individuals with postsecondary education can be found in low-skilled occupations, which tend to display higher unemployment rates and pay lower wages compared to high-skilled occupations. The proportion of university-educated individuals in lower-skilled occupations has risen from 12% in 1990 to about 17% in 2005, providing some evidence that there may be signs of oversupply of university graduates. Although admittedly, this is an area that requires further research.
Additional reasons include the rise in the use of alternative compensatory schemes, such as stock options and performance bonuses, which may be limiting the rise in the measured wages of university-educated workers; and the increase in the share of university-educated people working in the private sector, which tends to display higher rates of turnover compared to the public sector; this may have contributed to a rise in their unemployment rate.
Current Imbalances by Occupation
There are currently situations of imbalances in the labour market, with many occupations, mostly high-skilled, showing signs of excess demand...
While there is limited evidence of imbalances between the broad skill levels sought by employers and the availability of qualified labour, this can hide many instances of imbalances at a more detailed occupational level, with excess supply in some occupations coexisting with excess demand in others at the national level. In fact, numerous occupations are currently considered to be in a state of either excess demand or excess supply.
Supply and demand across occupations keep changing for a number of reasons, including the adoption of new production technologies, shifts in consumers' preferences, demographic developments and changes in the relative prices of goods and services. Adjustments in the volume and composition of labour sought by employers and in the labour supplied by individuals in response to such factors do not occur instantaneously or simultaneously. During the adjustment process, some sectors will be in a labour shortage situation while others will find themselves in a surplus situation.
The assessments of pressures in specific occupations are derived from indicators such as employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage growth. An occupation is considered to be in an excess-demand situation when employment and wages in that occupation are increasing substantially faster than in other occupations and when its unemployment rate is markedly lower than in previous years or relative to other occupations. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) methodology,9 an occupation is considered to be under pressure if its employment growth rate is at least 50% faster than the average, wage increases are at least 30% faster than average and the unemployment rate is at least 30% below average.10
However, the methodology used by the BLS tends to limit the number of occupations showing indications of current pressures. Accordingly, this methodology has been adapted to also include occupations with unemployment rates close to their lowest historical levels (even if their unemployment rates were not 30% below the average and wage growth was not 30% faster than average). This was done to take into account the fact that an unemployment rate of 5% is high for nurses but low for occupations in the construction sector.
The following table, using data for the 2003-05 period, lists the three- and four-digit NOC occupations (with at least 10,000 workers) that meet these thresholds. These occupations — mostly requiring university or college education, or apprenticeship training — represented 11.4% of total employment in 2005.
| Occupational group | Occupations showing signs of excess demand | Non-student employment 2005 (000s) |
| Business, finance and administration | Legislators and senior management (NOC 001) | 84.1 |
| Human resources managers (NOC 0112) | 27.4 | |
| Human resources and business service professionals (NOC 112) | 138.6 | |
| Supervisors, library, correspondence and related information clerks (NOC 1213) | 14.1 | |
| Natural and applied sciences and related | Geologists, geochemists and geophysicists (NOC 2113) | 11.3 |
| Civil engineers (NOC 2131) | 40.2 | |
| Mechanical engineers (NOC 2132) | 30.8 | |
| Computer engineers (NOC 2147) | 14.1 | |
| Software engineers (NOC 2173) | 29.1 | |
| Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians (NOC 2233) | 18.9 | |
| Health | Physicians, dentists and veterinarians (NOC 311) | 82.5 |
| Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals (NOC 312) | 13.2 | |
| Therapy and assessment professionals (NOC 314) | 43.6 | |
| Head nurses and supervisors (NOC 3151) | 15.2 | |
| Other technical occupations in health care (except dentists) (NOC 323), such as registered nursing assistants, audiology technicians and physiotherapy technicians | 108.7 | |
| Medical radiation technologists (NOC 3215) | 15.9 | |
| Nurse aides and orderlies (NOC 3413) | 175.8 | |
| Other aides and assistants in support of health services (NOC 3414) | 56.4 | |
| Social science, education, government service and religion Art, culture, recreation and sport | Lawyers and Quebec notaries (NOC 4112) | 71.4 |
| University professors (NOC 4121) | 50.2 | |
| Psychologists (NOC 4151) | 17.0 | |
| Art, culture, recreation and sport | Editors (NOC 5122) | 15.9 |
| Professional occupations in public relations and communications (NOC 5124) | 44.6 | |
| Sales and service | Accommodation service managers (NOC 0632) | 45.4 |
| Real estate agents and salespersons (NOC 6232) | 67.9 | |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations | Residential home builders and renovators (NOC 0712) | 80.8 |
| Facility operation and maintenance managers (NOC 0720) | 35.9 | |
| Contractors and supervisors trades and related workers (NOC 721), such as in pipefitting trades and carpentry trades | 208.5 | |
| Occupations specific to primary industry | Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service (NOC 8222) | 14.2 |
| Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers and related workers | 23.0 | |
| Occupations specific to processing, manufacturing and utilities | Supervisors, processing occupations (NOC 921),such as in petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities, and plastic and rubber products manufacturing | 72.8 |
| Total | 1,667.5 |
The largest number of occupations showing signs of shortages at the national level is found in the health sector. Pressures are particularly acute for physicians, therapy and assessment professionals (e.g. physiotherapists), head nurses and nurse aides. Other health occupations, such as registered nursing assistants, audiology technicians, physiotherapy technicians and medical radiation technologists, are also under pressure. Growth in demand for those occupations has been strong, due to the rising needs associated with population aging, increases in government funding for health care and a high number of retirements. On the other hand, supply growth in many of these occupations has been relatively weak. In some areas, the lack of supply may reflect the effects of earlier deficit control decisions (including accelerated retirements), declines in enrolments in related training programs or delays in graduation due to lengthening course requirements. In those occupations, new supply from immigration is also limited as a result of foreign-credentials recognition issues and strong world demand for health care workers.
Management occupations (e.g. senior management, human resources managers and accommodation service managers) are considered in shortage largely as a result of the demand associated with the high levels of retirement. Employers are placing greater emphasis on recruiting and retaining quality employees to handle the increasingly more complex jobs in our economy, resulting in a high demand for human resources professionals.
Other occupations are also showing signs of shortages:
- High energy prices and the associated boom in the number of wells drilled have boosted employment in occupations related to oil and gas drilling and service. Employment has also increased among geologists, geochemists and geophysicists as a result of the rise in commodity prices.
- High rates of retirement and increases in government funding for postsecondary education have resulted in more demand for new workers in social science and government service occupations such as psychologists, university teachers and lawyers.
- Strong growth in residential construction and renovation activities over the past several years has increased demand for home builders and renovators, as well as contractors and supervisors in trades.
- Two occupations that were hit hard by the information technology bust in the early 2000s seem to have recovered and are now included in the under-pressure group — namely, computer engineers and software engineers. In 2005, employment reached a new peak in both occupations while their unemployment rates returned to their lowest levels.
In a diverse country such as Canada, with different regions having quite different industrial mixes and demographics, a national-level assessment of pressures in occupational labour markets could easily mask major differences across regions. Some parts of the country may be facing a shortfall in an occupation while other regions may have excess supply in that same occupation. While an assessment of pressures in occupational labour markets at the provincial level has yet to be developed, other sources may provide some insights into the variations in labour market conditions in a given occupation across the country. For instance, the Construction Sector Council suggests that the need for new workers in non-residential construction occupations in Alberta, associated with major development projects in the energy sector, could be met to some extent by excess supply currently available in other provinces.11
...while other occupations, mostly lower-skilled, are showing signs of excess supply
The following table presents the results of a modified version of the BLS methodology for determining which occupations currently face downward pressures — that is, occupations where the supply of labour is greater than the demand. This category includes occupations with an employment growth rate at least 50% slower than the average, wage increases at least 30% lower than the average and unemployment rates at least 30% above average (or at historically high levels). As the table shows, nine occupations are currently in this situation, most of which require a low skill level.
| Occupational group | Occupations showing signs of excess supply | Non-student employment 2005 (000s) |
| Business, finance and administration | Office equipment operators (NOC 142) | 57.5 |
| Sales and services | Service station attendants (NOC 6621) | 14.6 |
| Trades, transport and equipment operators | Floor covering installers (NOC 7295) | 13.7 |
| Primary sector | Fishing vessel skippers and fishermen/women (NOC 8262) | 17.6 |
| Logging and forestry workers (NOC 842) | 14.8 | |
| Agriculture and horticulture workers (NOC 843) | 76.4 | |
| Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities | Machine operators and related workers in textile processing (NOC 944) | 18.1 |
| Industrial sewing machine operators (NOC 9451) | 39.8 | |
| Electronics assemblers, fabricators, inspectors and testers (NOC 9483) | 20.4 | |
| Total | 272.9 |
These excess-supply occupations represented 1.9% of non-student employment in 2005.12 Various reasons can explain why an occupation may be in a situation of excess supply. For example, organizational restructuring, automation and advances in computers tend to reduce the demand for office equipment operators. Technological advances in navigation, communications and fish tracking, along with harvest quotas, slow employment growth for fishing vessel skippers and fishermen/women. For machine operators in textile processing and for industrial sewing machine operators, international competition is the main contributor to declining employment. With service station attendants, the low skill level required means that the labour supply greatly exceeds demand. Finally, the difficulties experienced in forestry, agriculture and the electric and electronic equipment industry have had a negative impact on some occupations in those sectors.
1 The period under consideration (1987-2005) was chosen because data on occupations are available from Statistics Canada from 1987 onward.
2 Heavy investments in tar sands development projects in the last few years have not resulted in significant employment gains in the oil and gas extraction sector. Any gains arising from these major investments have been in other industries instead, including the construction industry.
3 The occupational analysis reported in this section pertains to non-student employment only (90.1% of employment in 2005) because our focus is on the permanent labour market and excludes young people who are employed while studying and who tend to be concentrated in the sales and service sector.
4 The period under analysis begins in 1990 because new questions on education were adopted in Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey that year, making it difficult to compare the results with those of previous years.
5 The college education grouping includes individuals with i) trades certificate or diploma from vocational schools or apprenticeship training, ii) a non-university certificate or diploma from a community college, CEGEP, school of nursing, etc. and iii) certificates below a Bachelor's degree obtained at a university.
6 The high school education grouping includes individuals with a high school diploma or those who have taken some post-secondary courses without having completed a post-secondary degree, certificate or diploma.
7 The level of skills sought by employers is derived by using an occupational classification system. This system groups occupations by skill level according to the educational attainment "usually required" by employers. Five skill levels are considered: (1) management occupations, a very broad group ranging from CEOs to restaurant managers; (2) occupations usually requiring university education; (3) occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training; (4) occupations usually requiring high school or occupation-specific training; and (5) occupations only requiring on-the-job training.
8 Data from these two charts were derived from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey (LFS). Wage data from the LFS begin in 1997.
9 See Carolyn M. Veneri, "Can occupational labor shortages be identified using available data?" Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 122, March 1999.
10 According to the BLS, "this somewhat arbitrary set of criteria was established to eliminate any occupation that could be considered a borderline case in terms of what the data might show if less stringent criteria were used." For example, the BLS methodology would eliminate occupations where wages cannot increase because of institutional constraints - e.g. a fixed compensation structure within an organization.
11 See Construction Sector Council, Construction Looking Forward: Labour Requirements for Canada and the Provinces from 2005 to 2013. Ottawa, 2005.
12 This methodology will tend to underestimate the number of occupations in excess supply as wages adjust less rapidly to situations of oversupply (i.e. wages rigidities).
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