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ARCHIVED - Looking-Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook for the Canadian Labour Market (2006-2015)
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Annual Economic and Labour Market Statistics, 1987-2005
Annual Economic Annual Economic and Labour Market Statistics, 1987-2005
Employment by Industry
| Employment (000s) | Change 1988-2005 (AAGR**) | Share of employment 2005 | ||
| 1987 | 2005 | |||
| All industries | 12,333.0 | 16,169.7 | 1.5% | |
| Goods-producing sector | 3,633.9 | 4,002.4 | 0.5% | 24.8% |
| Agriculture | 464.5 | 343.7 | -1.7% | 2.1% |
| Forestry and logging | 68.5 | 69.5 | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Fishing, hunting and trapping | 34.2 | 26.3 | -1.4% | 0.2% |
| Oil and gas extraction | 48.4 | 68.0 | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Mining (except oil and gas) | 101.9 | 60.1 | -2.9% | 0.4% |
| Support activities for mining, oil and gas extraction | 34.1 | 82.6 | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Construction | 726.6 | 1,019.5 | 1.9% | 6.3% |
| Utilities | 114.8 | 125.3 | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Manufacturing | 2,041.0 | 2,207.4 | 0.4% | 13.7% |
| Food and beverages | 275.1 | 302.7 | 0.5% | 1.9% |
| Wood products | 120.4 | 169.2 | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Pulp and paper, paper products | 123.3 | 101.2 | -1.1% | 0.6% |
| Printing and related activities | 89.1 | 99.3 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| Rubber, plastics and chemicals | 197.9 | 259.7 | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| Manufactured mineral products | 206.9 | 171.8 | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| Metal products and machinery | 258.6 | 321.3 | 1.2% | 2.0% |
| Computer, electronic and electric products | 179.9 | 150.7 | -1.0% | 0.9% |
| Motor vehicles, trailers and parts | 169.1 | 231.8 | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| Other transportation equipment | 66.8 | 77.5 | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Other manufacturing (textiles, clothing, furniture and supplies) | 354.0 | 322.0 | -0.5% | 2.0% |
| Service sector | 8,699.2 | 12,167.3 | 1.9% | 75.2% |
| Wholesale trade | 417.4 | 607.1 | 2.1% | 3.8% |
| Retail trade | 1,564.6 | 1,967.5 | 1.3% | 12.2% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 634.0 | 793.6 | 1.3% | 4.9% |
| Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing | 765.8 | 987.8 | 1.4% | 6.1% |
| Professional business services | 314.6 | 510.7 | 2.7% | 3.2% |
| Computer system design services | 48.2 | 253.6 | 9.7% | 1.6% |
| Other professional services | 127.0 | 285.8 | 4.6% | 1.8% |
| Management, administrative and support services | 272.6 | 654.4 | 5.0% | 4.0% |
| Educational services | 776.6 | 1,106.1 | 2.0% | 6.8% |
| Health care and social assistance | 1,152.0 | 1,734.6 | 2.3 % | 10.7% |
| Information, culture and recreation | 511.1 | 735.1 | 2.0 % | 4.5% |
| Accommodation and food services | 716.7 | 1,004.5 | 1.9 % | 6.2% |
| Other services | 633.1 | 693.4 | 0.5 % | 4.3% |
| Public administration | 765.4 | 833.1 | 0.5 % | 5.2% |
| Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey. *This breakdown of 33 industries is used by the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS). **AAGR: average annual growth rate. |
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National Occupation Classification Matrix
National Occupation Classification Matrix http://www5.hrsdc.gc.ca/NOC/English/NOC/2006/Matrix.aspx
Employment by Three-Digit Occupations, 1987-2015
| Non-student Employment (000s) | Past Growth 1988-2005 (AAGR1) | Future Growth 2006-2015(AAGR1) | |||
| 1987 | 2005 | 2015 | |||
| 000 Total | 11,242.9 | 14,566.0 | 16,263.7 | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 001 Legislators and senior management | 67.8 | 84.1 | 95.6 | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| 011 Managers in administrative services | 92.8 | 109.4 | 126.1 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 012 Managers in financial and business services | 69.0 | 87.9 | 94.0 | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| 013 Managers in communication (except broadcasting) | 10.7 | 13.5 | 15.3 | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| 021 Managers in engineering, architecture, science and information systems | 24.2 | 58.1 | 66.2 | 5.0% | 1.3% |
| 031 Managers in health, education, social and community services | 54.2 | 90.6 | 104.1 | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| 041 Managers In public administration | 9.0 | 24.9 | 27.6 | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| 051 Managers in art, culture, recreation and sport | 12.1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 061 Sales, marketing and advertising managers | 97.5 | 121.8 | 140.2 | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| 062 Managers in retail trade | 269.2 | 323.8 | 353.6 | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 063 Managers in food services and accommodation | 107.6 | 164.5 | 185.6 | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| 064 Managers in protective services | 3.8 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| 065 Managers in other services | 13.7 | 14.6 | 16.2 | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 071 Managers in construction and transportation | 80.9 | 142.4 | 167.3 | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| 072 Facility operation and maintenance managers | 19.9 | 35.9 | 42.3 | 3.3% | 1.7% |
| 081 Managers in primary production (except agriculture) | 4.4 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 091 Managers in manufacturing and utilities | 72.7 | 80.0 | 85.2 | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 111 Auditors, accountants and investment professionals | 198.6 | 304.0 | 345.8 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 112 Human resources and business service professionals | 42.0 | 138.6 | 167.7 | 6.9% | 1.9% |
| 121 Clerical supervisors | 83.8 | 118.4 | 123.6 | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 122 Administrative and regulatory occupations | 191.5 | 306.9 | 351.8 | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| 123 Finance and insurance administrative occupations | 163.0 | 206.3 | 229.0 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 124 Secretaries, recorders and transcriptionists | 451.8 | 231.0 | 210.7 | -3.7% | -0.9% |
| 141 Clerical occupations, general office skills | 386.8 | 230.5 | 250.7 | -2.8% | 0.8% |
| 142 Office equipment operators | 92.6 | 57.5 | 49.4 | -2.6% | -1.5% |
| 143 Finance and insurance clerks | 235.5 | 340.9 | 371.9 | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 144 Administrative support clerks | 35.7 | 226.6 | 253.3 | 10.8% | 1.1% |
| 145 Library, correspondence and related information clerks | 61.0 | 180.6 | 213.5 | 6.2% | 1.7% |
| 146 Mail and message distribution occupations | 91.4 | 89.1 | 93.1 | -0.1% | 0.4% |
| 147 Recording, scheduling and distributing occupations | 185.7 | 235.5 | 262.3 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 211 Physical science professionals | 27.2 | 27.7 | 31.0 | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| 212 Life science professionals | 15.3 | 22.4 | 26.3 | 2.1% | 1.6% |
| 213 Civil, mechanical, electrical and chemical engineers | 66.9 | 115.2 | 143.8 | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| 214 Other engineers | 38.0 | 62.3 | 73.8 | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| 215 Architects, urban planners and land surveyors | 23.8 | 31.0 | 34.0 | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| 216 Mathematicians, systems analysts and computer programmers | 7.9 | 6.1 | 7.2 | -1.4% | 1.7% |
| 217 Computer and information systems professionals | 103.4 | 301.7 | 369.5 | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| 221 Technical occupations in physical sciences | 20.2 | 30.3 | 33.9 | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| 222 Technical occupations in life sciences | 27.5 | 38.8 | 45.0 | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| 223 Technical occupations in civil, mechanical and industrial engineering | 28.2 | 63.9 | 78.7 | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 224 Technical occupations in electronics and electrical engineering | 74.2 | 117.1 | 144.8 | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| 225 Technical occupations in architecture, drafting, surveying and mapping | 56.4 | 49.8 | 52.7 | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| 226 Other technical inspectors and regulatory officers | 22.6 | 43.9 | 51.8 | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| 227 Transportation officers and controllers | 21.5 | 27.8 | 32.8 | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| 228 Technical occupations in computer and information systems | 44.2 | 105.7 | 123.9 | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| 311 Physicians, dentists and veterinarians | 57.1 | 82.5 | 110.4 | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| 312 Optometrists, chiropractors and other health diagnosing and treating professionals | 8.6 | 13.2 | 16.1 | 2.4% | 2.0% |
| 313 Pharmacists, dietitians and nutritionists | 20.8 | 31.7 | 41.2 | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| 314 Therapy and assessment professionals | 16.6 | 43.5 | 60.0 | 5.5% | 3.3% |
| 315 Nurse supervisors and registered nurses | 211.1 | 252.1 | 323.3 | 1.0% | 2.5% |
| 321 Medical technologists and technicians (except dental health) | 53.2 | 80.3 | 103.1 | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| 322 Technical occupations in dental health care | 14.1 | 24.7 | 29.0 | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| 323 Other technical occupations in health care (except dental) | 86.0 | 108.7 | 120.7 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 341 Assisting occupations in support of health services | 103.8 | 254.6 | 305.0 | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| 411 Judges, lawyers and Quebec notaries | 48.1 | 73.2 | 80.7 | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 412 University professors and assistants | 51.4 | 83.0 | 101.4 | 2.7% | 2.0% |
| 413 College and other vocational instructors | 56.4 | 78.1 | 88.6 | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| 414 Secondary and elementary school teachers and counsellors | 238.4 | 406.6 | 440.9 | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| 415 Psychologists, social workers, counsellors, clergy and probation officers | 60.1 | 121.0 | 141.3 | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| 416 Policy and program officers, researchers and consultants | 50.0 | 123.6 | 144.3 | 5.2% | 1.6% |
| 421 Paralegals, social services workers and occupations in education and religion, N.E.C.2 | 166.3 | 322.7 | 366.0 | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 511 Librarians, archivists, conservators and curators | 12.9 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 512 Writing, translating and public relations professionals | 59.5 | 105.5 | 114.2 | 3.2% | 0.8% |
| 513 Creative and performing artists | 53.4 | 90.1 | 96.1 | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| 521 Technical occupations in libraries, archives, museums and galleries | 12.6 | 18.0 | 19.5 | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 522 Photographers, graphic arts technicians and technical occupations | 25.4 | 40.5 | 48.0 | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| 523 Announcers and other performers | 11.2 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| 524 Creative designers and craftspersons | 51.4 | 87.3 | 104.6 | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 525 Athletes, coaches, referees and related occupations | 25.0 | 56.6 | 70.0 | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| 621 Sales and service supervisors | 91.2 | 220.6 | 256.9 | 5.0% | 1.5% |
| 622 Technical sales specialists, wholesale trade | 76.9 | 113.1 | 132.5 | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| 623 Insurance and real estate sales occupations and buyers | 130.0 | 154.1 | 168.4 | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| 624 Chefs and cooks | 132.0 | 174.7 | 207.4 | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| 625 Butchers and bakers | 45.2 | 62.0 | 72.3 | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| 626 Police officers and firefighters | 77.4 | 90.6 | 98.3 | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| 627 Technical occupations in personal service | 83.4 | 94.0 | 103.0 | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| 641 Sales representatives, wholesale trade | 100.6 | 230.7 | 249.0 | 4.7% | 0.8% |
| 642 Retail salespersons and sales clerks | 393.5 | 409.2 | 447.2 | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| 643 Occupations in travel and accommodation | 50.4 | 70.8 | 79.4 | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| 644 Tour and recreational guides and amusement occupations | 4.9 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 7.0% | 1.1% |
| 645 Occupations in food and beverage service | 140.5 | 185.1 | 215.8 | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| 646 Other occupations in protective service | 28.2 | 32.3 | 36.4 | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| 647 Childcare and home support workers | 191.4 | 159.6 | 165.4 | -1.0% | 0.4% |
| 648 Other occupations in personal service | 25.2 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| 661 Cashiers | 156.9 | 211.6 | 224.9 | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 662 Other sales and related occupations | 95.8 | 161.7 | 175.5 | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| 664 Food counter attendants and kitchen helpers | 153.7 | 169.9 | 185.2 | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 665 Security guards and related occupations | 66.1 | 79.0 | 95.3 | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| 666 Cleaners | 303.9 | 375.7 | 395.4 | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 667 Other attendants in travel, accommodation and recreation | 10.8 | 21.7 | 25.2 | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 668 Other elemental service occupations | 46.1 | 40.8 | 43.4 | -0.7% | 0.6% |
| 721 Contractors and supervisors, trades and related workers | 183.5 | 208.5 | 232.1 | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| 722 Supervisors, railway and motor transportation occupations | 20.7 | 27.2 | 29.3 | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 723 Machinists and related occupations | 58.5 | 70.7 | 81.0 | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 724 Electrical trades and telecommunications occupations | 124.0 | 140.6 | 152.3 | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| 725 Plumbers, pipefitters and gas fitters | 49.4 | 57.3 | 62.8 | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 726 Metal forming, shaping and erecting occupations | 124.5 | 132.2 | 145.4 | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| 727 Carpenters and cabinetmakers | 131.3 | 128.3 | 138.3 | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 728 Masonry and plastering trades | 50.0 | 62.0 | 70.9 | 1.2% | 1.4% |
| 729 Other construction trades | 60.1 | 85.3 | 93.2 | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 731 Machinery and transportation equipment mechanics (except motor vehicle) | 158.7 | 173.0 | 188.3 | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| 732 Motor vehicle mechanics | 147.0 | 149.9 | 166.1 | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 733 Other mechanics | 24.3 | 28.0 | 31.4 | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| 734 Upholsterers, tailors, shoe repairers, jewellers and related occupations | 38.4 | 29.3 | 30.4 | -1.5% | 0.4% |
| 735 Stationary engineers and power station and system operators | 30.7 | 27.8 | 26.1 | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| 736 Train crew operating occupations | 14.5 | 12.1 | 11.8 | -1.0% | -0.2% |
| 737 Crane operators, drillers and blasters | 20.9 | 11.7 | 13.2 | -3.2% | 1.2% |
| 738 Printing press operators, commercial divers and other trades, and related occupations | 46.2 | 34.4 | 35.1 | -1.6% | 0.2% |
| 741 Motor vehicle and transit drivers | 379.3 | 431.8 | 476.8 | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 742 Heavy equipment operators | 74.1 | 88.0 | 97.6 | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| 743Other transport equipment operators and related workers | 24.4 | 19.3 | 19.4 | -1.3% | 0.0% |
| 744 Other installers, repairers and servicers | 45.5 | 61.7 | 65.8 | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| 745 Longshore workers and materials handlers | 137.7 | 182.1 | 207.7 | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| 761 Trades helpers and labourers | 104.6 | 105.5 | 108.8 | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 762 Public works and other labourers, N.E.C.2 | 15.3 | 20.9 | 24.7 | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| 821 Supervisors, logging and forestry | 7.8 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 0.4% | -1.0% |
| 822 Supervisors, mining, oil and gas | 11.8 | 19.9 | 21.8 | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| 823 Underground miners, oil and gas drillers and related workers | 20.8 | 38.0 | 46.4 | 3.4% | 2.0% |
| 824 Logging machinery operators | 11.6 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 1.1% | -0.7% |
| 825 Contractors, operators and supervisors in agriculture, horticulture and aquaculture | 263.0 | 212.2 | 226.6 | -1.2% | 0.7% |
| 826 Fishing vessel masters and skippers and fishermen/women | 21.4 | 18.3 | 18.9 | -0.9% | 0.3% |
| 841 Mine service workers and operators in oil and gas drilling | 7.0 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| 842 Logging and forestry workers | 26.3 | 14.8 | 13.6 | -3.1% | -0.8% |
| 843 Agriculture and horticulture workers | 111.6 | 76.4 | 75.8 | -2.1% | -0.1% |
| 844 Other fishing and trapping occupations | 11.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | -3.0% | 0.1% |
| 861 Primary production labourers | 61.8 | 83.0 | 90.7 | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| 921 Supervisors, processing occupations | 54.3 | 72.8 | 81.2 | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| 922 Supervisors, assembly and fabrication | 38.2 | 57.0 | 61.1 | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 923 Central control and process operators in manufacturing and processing | 29.5 | 23.4 | 26.3 | -1.3% | 1.2% |
| 941 Machine operators and related workers in metal and mineral products processing | 43.7 | 30.3 | 31.4 | -2.0% | 0.4% |
| 942 Machine operators and related workers in chemical, plastic and rubber processing | 47.5 | 75.2 | 86.5 | 2.6% | 1.4% |
| 943 Machine operators and related workers in pulp and paper production and wood processing | 47.3 | 60.8 | 58.1 | 1.4% | -0.4% |
| 944 Machine operators and related workers in textile processing | 25.5 | 18.1 | 17.7 | -1.9% | -0.2% |
| 945 Machine operators and related workers in fabric, fur and leather | 83.8 | 47.7 | 45.9 | -3.1% | -0.4% |
| 946 Machine operators and related workers in food, beverage and tobacco processing | 62.2 | 82.3 | 86.6 | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 947 Printing machine operators and related occupations | 29.1 | 28.5 | 30.4 | -0.1% | 0.7% |
| 948 Mechanical, electrical and electronics assemblers | 124.8 | 105.5 | 119.5 | -0.9% | 1.3% |
| 949 Other assembly and related occupations | 80.1 | 107.5 | 109.4 | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| 951 Machining, metalworking, woodworking and related machine operators | 68.8 | 135.7 | 152.6 | 3.8% | 1.2% |
| 961 Labourers in processing, manufacturing and utilities | 185.9 | 197.7 | 195.5 | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Source: HRSDC, Strategic Policy Research Directorate, 2006 Scenario Reference. 1AAGR: average annual growth rate. 2N.E.C.: not elsewhere classified. |
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Reasons why There is not Perfect Correspondence Between the Educational Attainment of a Worker and the Skill Level of his/her Occupation
There are several factors that can explain why high-educated individuals are found in low-skilled occupations:
- People with high educational attainment not being able to fill an occupation requiring that education because of other skills deficiencies (such as interpersonal skills, work ethics etc.);
- Normal career progression, where young educated workers must fill low-skilled occupations before moving to higher skilled jobs (e.g. from retail trade clerk to supervisor);
- Older educated workers or parents of young children choosing to work in low-skilled occupations that offer more flexible work arrangements;
- People voluntarily withdrawing from the graduate labour market for personal reasons (e.g. because they need more time to take care of their children) or as a result of a joint decision, with one spouse taking a higher-paid job;
- Demand deficiencies or oversupply in certain fields of study, forcing graduates to seek employment in low-skilled occupations (e.g. low demand for biology graduates may force them to settle in lower skilled jobs as they cannot simply apply in other sciences occupations);
- Coordination failures, with potential candidates being unaware of vacancies or jobs being offered in a different region;
- The occupational classification system, which is updated every 10 years or so, not capturing the increase in skills requirements of some occupations.
Conversely, there is also a sizeable proportion of individuals with lower educational attainment in high-skilled occupations, and most particularly in management and in occupations usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training. Several reasons can explain why low-educated individuals may fill higher skilled jobs:
- Individuals may have been able to accumulate job experience that sufficiently qualifies them for a position normally requiring a higher level of educational attainment. This is especially the case in management occupations where an individual can start as a clerk and rise up the career ladder to become a manager.
- In a tight labour market, some other individuals with exceptional skills may be hired because no individuals with appropriate educational qualifications are available.
- The occupational classification system may not always capture the heterogeneity between occupations when bundling occupations together. For example, "chefs and cooks" is considered as one 3-digit occupation and is defined in the occupational classification system as "usually requiring college education or apprenticeship training". However, cook positions generally require much lower education.
Methodology for Forecasting the Probability that Those with a Given Level of Education will Fill Occupations with a Given Level of Skills
Determining future labour supply by broad skill level on the basis of forecasts of labour supply by educational attainment can be accomplished by forecasting the probability that an individual with a given level of education will be in an occupation normally requiring a given level of skills. In some cases, there is a relatively straight match between a given educational field of study and a given occupation — for example, a medical school graduate who becomes a doctor. In other instances, however, the match is not as straightforward, with school leavers being spread across a wide range of occupations. In addition, as the population ages, upward occupational mobility, which includes movements to management ranks as workers gain labour force experience, and downward occupational mobility, where workers choose to enter lower-skilled occupations as part of their transition towards retirement, will become increasingly important in determining the future labour supply by broad skill level.
With this in mind, match probabilities were estimated for five skill levels, four educational attainment categories (university, college, high school, less than high school), and nine age groups (15-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-64, and 65 and over). Overall, this approach ensures that the impact of population aging will be reflected in the labour force projections by skill level.
Labour force aged 15-34
The probabilities that young workers with given levels of education will fill occupations with given levels of skills were simply projected as a constant based on the most recent five-year moving average, which was used to eliminate cyclical variations. This approach makes it possible to follow young workers who move between skill levels as they transition from school to the workforce. For example, in the model, as young people move into career jobs and away from student-type jobs, the proportion of the university educated labour force in occupations usually requiring university education (skill level A) rises from 43% for the 15-24 age group to 53% for the 25-29 age group and remains steady at 52% for the 30-34 age group.
Labour force aged 35-49
Among the core-age workers, the probabilities are projected using the synthetic cohort approach. For example, the proportion of university graduates aged 40-44 who are at skill level A will depend on the proportion of university graduates at skill level A who were aged between 35 and 39 five years earlier. In addition, upward occupational mobility estimated from historical behaviour is incorporated into the model; this includes movements to management ranks and transitions whereby individuals employed in an occupation with a skill level requiring education less than they actually possess are allowed to move into higher-skilled occupations. For example, the historical relationship between university- educated workers aged 40 to 44 and those aged 35 to 39 five years earlier suggests that a proportion of these workers have moved to the management level. Note that in the core-age groups, downward occupational mobility — a process in which workers move to a skill level usually requiring less education from one requiring more —is not permitted. This type of transition is considered to be a response to demand fluctuations and is not part of the normal progression of a typical individual's career.
Labour force 50 and over
For older workers, the same approach is used as for core-age workers. However, downward occupational mobility is now allowed as part of the transition towards retirement. For example, the historical relationship between university-educated workers aged 55 to 64 and those aged 50 to 54 five years earlier suggests that a proportion of workers move out of management ranks and occupations usually requiring university education into lower-skilled occupations.
The following charts display forecasts of the probability that individuals with a given level of education will fill occupations with a given level of skills. For example, the probability that a university-educated individual will fill a management position is expected to decline in the future, given the tendency towards downward mobility as workers transition towards retirement. Conversely, the probability that a university-educated individual will fill an occupation usually requiring high school education is expected to rise. In the case of university-educated workers filling occupations that usually require university education, the match probability is expected to remain relatively stable in the future, as pressures from downward mobility, due to an ageing population, are offset by recent improvements in skill matching among younger age groups.
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Assessing Potential Pressures by Occupation
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